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Update

Analyzing The UFC's Light Heavyweight Division

While most consider the UFC’s lightweight division as the deepest division in the organization, the light heavyweight division easily has the most star power, and blockbuster fight possibilities. The last major fight to take place in the division was over four months ago when Chuck Liddell defeated Wanderlei Silva in a three round war. Things are about to get rolling again with a handful of big fights scheduled to take place during the next few events. Here’s a breakdown of the top fighters in the division, along with some possible fight scenarios for the future.

Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson: Rampage has been at the top of the light heavyweight division for almost a year now. After his stunning knockout win over then champ Chuck Liddell, he went on to beat Dan Henderson by unanimous decision. The fight against Henderson was way back in September, and he hasn’t fought since largely due to a hand injury, and because of his role as a coach on The Ultimate Fighter reality show. Jackson will fight Forrest Griffin at UFC 86 in July. If he can get past Griffin, there will be no shortage of challengers for the charismatic champion. Rampage has loses to avenge to both Wanderlei Silva, and Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua. However, Chuck Liddell will probably get another crack at the title, assuming he wins his next fight. A re-match with Liddell has the possibility to be one of the biggest fights ever, and it’s highly probable that the UFC will make it happen.

Forrest Griffin: Griffin earned the coveted number one contenders spot by tapping out the man who many believed was the best fighter in the world, Shogun. Forrest is largely popular with fans due to his bizarre personality and all or nothing fighting style, but will enter his match with Rampage as an underdog. Whether he gets by Rampage or not, we’ll probably see Griffin take on Keith Jardine sometime in the near future. With a loss, he’ll probably be matched up with the likes of Rashad Evans or possibly even the 11-0 Thiago Silva.

Chuck Liddell: The writing is clearly on the wall that with a victory in his next match, the Iceman will most likely earn another shot at the title. It appeared as if a number one contender’s bout was to take place between Liddell and Shogun in June, until both went down with injuries. It’s possible that the fight will be re-scheduled for September, as MMA fans were foaming at the mouth to see this epic match up. Other fight possibilities for Liddell include a rematch with Keith Jardine, who beat Liddell in a lackluster fight in the fall, and I’m sure no one would complain to see another fight with Wanderlei Silva. If Liddell manages to get another shot at Rampage, and is defeated, expect him to move up a weight class, or possibly even retire. Liddell’s next fight could dictate the rest of his career.

Keith Jardine: The Dean of Mean is perhaps the most overlooked fighter in the division. He holds wins over Griffin and Liddell. If he can manage to get by Wanderlei Silva at UFC 84, it’ll be hard to argue that he doesn’t deserve a title shot. With a loss, he’ll be right back in the middle of the pack.

Wanderlei Silva: The ‘Axe Murderer’ is easily one of the best strikers in MMA, as well as one of the most exciting fighters. Silva is currently riding a three fight loss streak, but could be right back in the mix with a victory over Keith Jardine. In his UFC debut in December, Silva looked relatively small compared to Chuck Liddell. The size comparison has many speculating of a possible drop to the middleweight division. With a loss to Jardine, dropping a weight class may be a good idea, but with a win he’ll put himself in contention for a title shot. He does have two knockout wins over Rampage, so another fight between the two would be intriguing. A drop to middleweight could set up a fight with current champ Anderson Silva. As long as he keeps fighting how he does, the fight possibilities are endless.

Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Shogun was regarded as the top light heavyweight in the world when he entered the UFC, but after a loss to Forrest Griffin and some unfortunate injuries, he’s been inactive and unable to prove his top notch abilities. Shogun was to face Chuck Liddell before rupturing his ACL. Word has it that he’ll be ready to fight again in September, and with a win a title shot will not be out of the question. The 26 year old holds a devastating knockout win over Rampage Jackson, and 13 of his 16 wins were by knockout.

Tito Ortiz: Tito’s UFC career is all but over; as he’s announced many times that he’ll leave the promotion following his fight later this month against Lyoto Machida. Ortiz has been beefing with the UFC brass because he wants more money. It appears as if he’ll end up signing with another promotion where he won’t have a chance to fight top tier talent anymore, he probably won’t receive as much exposure, he’ll be looked at as selfish, but he’ll get more money. It would be nice to see Tito stick around, as there’s still plenty of interesting fights left for him in the UFC, but with his best years behind him, he’s not worth as much as he thinks he is.

Lyoto Machida: Machida is largely unknown by casual MMA fans, but he’ll step into the spotlight when he fights Tito Ortiz at UFC 83. Some consider Machida to be a boring fighter, but he holds notable wins over B.J. Penn, Rich Franklin, and Sokoudjou. With a win over Ortiz, the 12-0 fighter will be somewhere close to the front of the line for a title shot.

Rashad Evans: ‘Sugar’ Rashad is 16-0-1, but is yet to take down any major contenders. He was supposed to fight Chuck Liddell, but Liddell got injured, so he’ll get the middle of the pack James Irvin instead. Evans is one the smaller side of 205, so a drop to middleweight could be in his future. As long as he continues to win, he’ll stay where he’s at. Evans is a top tier talent, but won’t be considered for a title shot until he beats some stiffer competition.

So who else matters in this weight class? Thiago Silva, Sokoudjou, Matt Hamill, and James Irvin are all fighters who could rise in the rankings if they can get on a roll. As for fan favorite Houston Alexander, he’ll probably get one more shot in the UFC, but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll get too far. There are also rumors that Rich Franklin would consider moving up to this weight class, which would set up some very appealing fights. Dan Henderson is also another fighter who could play a major role in the division, but it appears that he'll remain at middleweight.

The UFC has done an excellent job in bringing in all the top light heavyweights in the world. No other division has so many fighters who are in the prime of their career. Over the next three events the landscape of the weight class will change completely, as they’ll be new contenders and possibly even a new champion. The one thing that’s for sure with this division is that the amount of thrilling matches is limitless.

~Joe Osborne